6 minutes reading
TV debates could change the game in a general election. With Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, he has everything to lose.
In a bid to ramp up pressure on the first day of the campaign, the Prime Minister challenged Starmer to a record six weekly head-to-head election debates, accusing Labor of being fearful. This is what a spokesperson for CCHQ said PoliticsHome: “The Prime Minister is prepared to debate the Labor leader every week of the campaign.”
But six head-to-head confrontations are highly unlikely. Not only are the TV schedules already packed with summer sporting events and festival broadcasts, but it also works to Starmer’s advantage to do as few as possible.
“If you’re Rishi Sunak you’re out there going ‘anytime, anywhere, everywhere’ and if you’re Keir Starmer you put a bit of a damper on it,” says Craig Oliver, former No. 10 director of communications at David Cameron .
“From Labour’s point of view, leadership debates, given that they are at the forefront, will feel like a distraction and an opportunity for surprises or unexpected things – for drama. I suspect that’s why the Tories want them: they hope something goes wrong,” explains Theo Bertram, director of the Social Market Foundation and former No. 10 special adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Craig Oliver added: “It just depends on how far the Labor Party thinks it can get away with not doing things.”
Labor officials have confirmed they will only commit to two televised debates with the BBC and ITV. An ITV source reveals that Number 10 is pushing for the debate to take place next week, indicating Sunak is keen to get the showdown started as soon as possible.
Starmer has agreed to take part in a Sky News leaders special in Grimsby, with Beth Rigby set to host on June 11 or 12. It is currently unclear whether other party leaders will be present, as negotiations with Sunak are still ongoing.
It is possible that the smaller parties will be pushed out of TV debates altogether reports that the BBC will follow ITV’s lead in banning them. This would be good news for Starmer, especially when it comes to discussing issues such as the Israel-Gaza war; but Sunak would probably be grateful if Reform UK had less of a platform to outflank him on the right.
A Reform Party spokesman said excluding other party leaders from the debates would be a “democratic outrage”.
“These are clearly the Tories trying to spoil the ground by trying to make it an issue of them versus Labour, and that is no longer the case. It is unfair and infamous.”
The Lib Dems have been particularly quiet on whether they will take part in the TV debates, and are still cautious following their decision in 2019 to take ITV to court for excluding their previous leader Jo Swinson from the debate. The legal challenge failed.
A spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats said: “This election will not be won or lost in a narrow debate – it will be up to voters across the country.”
While there is no formal process for how election TV debates work, they have been a consistent part of the general election since 2010. The only exception was in 2017, when then Prime Minister Theresa May bowed out and sent Amber Rudd in her place. However, she later admitted that she regretted not participating.
“We shouldn’t be in this process of trying to drag our feet down,” Bertram says. “It would be much better to have this discussion outside of a competition period.”
He argues that instead of the current ad hoc system, there should be a formal process for how election television debates are conducted. “In 2010 we felt we should set it up as a more formal committee, but we just ran out of time. I always regret that.”
Since there is no official process, each political party advocates the format that will give them the greatest benefit. “That’s why we pushed for an economic debate in 2010, because we felt that Gordon [Brown] would be stronger. We wanted a Europe debate to take place, because we thought that was the case [David] Cameron would be weaker,” Bertram reveals.
In 2010, it was Bertram who helped then Prime Minister Brown prepare for the very first televised election debates. He recalls: “It really dominated the campaign, it basically came down to either you’re preparing for a leadership debate or you’re just finishing one and then recovering from it.”
He adds: “The amount of effort and how tiring it is mentally and physically cannot be underestimated. I think all parties have gradually learned that. We exhausted Gordon in the first campaign.”
“The only thing anyone really remembered about [the debate] Ed Miliband almost fell off the stage.”
Similarly, David Cameron took part in three election debates in 2015, including one live debate. “I remember David Cameron feeling like he was often cooped up in preparation or in a television studio when he felt he should be going out into the country,” Oliver recalls. He adds, “The only thing anyone really remembered about [the debate] Ed Miliband almost fell off the stage.”
But from the start, the debates proved powerful, changing the game for the Liberal Democrats overnight. Nick Clegg stole the show from political heavyweights Gordon Brown and David Cameron, briefly riding the ‘yellow wave’ known as Cleggmania.
“Nick Clegg was able to intervene from the sidelines and attract a huge amount of attention and destabilize the campaign,” explains Craig Oliver.
If a party leader manages to hijack the debate and deliver a great soundbite, then he has succeeded. Oliver recalls a moment during the 2015 party leadership debate when Cameron did just that.
‘We came to the conclusion that all party leaders wanted to raise taxes, except David Cameron. And so we said at some point you just have to seize the debate and say, ‘What everyone has to realize is that they want to raise your taxes, they want to raise your taxes’ and point at each of them. . It was indeed a dramatic moment.”
“More than PMQs, it is really a theater performance,” Burtram explains.
How will Starmer fare against Sunak?
‘They both have their rehearsed lines, I don’t think they are both as good at these kinds of performances as, for example, William Haag or Tony Blair. So I suspect it won’t be the most enlightening or entertaining evening,” says Bertram.
Oliver agrees: “None of these guys have proven to be terribly exciting. It’s hard not to see it as a disappointment.”
PoliticsHome Newsletters
PoliticsHome provides the most comprehensive coverage of British politics anywhere on the web, offering high-quality original reporting and analysis: Subscribe
