Newly elected MPs to enter Parliament in 2010 (alamy)
5 minutes reading
A major swing towards Labor at the next general election – which is likely from polls and local election victories – will mean not only a significant political shift, but also a huge change of personnel at Westminster, with real consequences for the effectiveness of the new government. .
Even a small Labor majority could produce around 125 novice MPs who have never held seats before. But there are also around 20 current MPs resigning from seats the party would expect to hold, meaning even seats held by Labor could have a new MP with no experience in parliament. The same goes for a number of Tories who are taking their seats in the few safe seats they have left. There are also likely to be several dozen new Lib Dem MPs, according to current polls.
If Labor wins a landslide, this change will be even more apparent. Perhaps half of the next parliament could be newcomers.
For a political system that thrives on unwritten rules and loyalties as much as formal procedures, a huge new influx unfamiliar with the codes of parliament could have a significant impact on the workings of our politics. In the run-up to the elections, a lot of attention was paid to selections. Within each party, various factions have tried to push their favorites into winnable positions, but an MP’s newness can make as much of a difference in office as any ideological underpinning.
Unlike some jurisdictions, there is little training time for parliamentarians. The British electoral transition is moving incredibly quickly: as soon as the result is announced, they are in office, and parliament convenes shortly afterwards. For rookie MPs, exhausted by weeks of elections, this will be an overwhelming time.
Arriving at Westminster will be a huge challenge for new MPs, before they even think about politics. Newly elected MPs, especially those who win seats from the opposition, will receive little carryover. In the first few weeks, they will not only have to build up their parliamentary offices, but also reorient their personal lives (and those of their families) around the difficult realities of political life. In addition, there will likely be a large number of constituency issues that have built up during the election period, or have been inherited from before, that we need to get to grips with.
Even once settled in Westminster, new MPs are likely to need time to adapt to the way politics works in practice. “They need to learn not only the procedures and rules of the House, but also the nuances, the ways to actually make things happen,” said Alice Lilly, a senior scholar at the Institute for Government. “That all takes time, especially when you learn how to be really effective in control.”
But a new parliament trying to get to grips with the inner workings of Westminster could help strengthen executive power. With so many new faces in parliament, it will take some time for informal groups and factions to unite. Particularly on the government side, new MPs will not have learned how to push dissent’s buttons. There will also be many ambitious promotions, and less experienced, independent and perhaps jaded figures who will become the focus of internal opposition. All this could make it easier for the government to capture jobs and shift power back to the executive branch.
On the other side of the House, the new opposition MPs will also need time to adapt. They will have to learn how best to use parliamentary questions to put pressure on the government, and how to hold ministers to account. For the Tories, this will be part of a wider learning process. Whether through retirement or defeat, there won’t be many MPs with experience of pre-2010 opposition. Settling into this new reality, especially surrounded by so many newcomers and with leadership elections underway the sting of Tory attacks will be taken away for a while, and a new government could be granted a grace period.
Formal control structures are also likely to be more robust. Although novice MPs may end up on select committees, these are usually chaired by senior members, increasingly former ministers. They will be able to mentor newer members who may not have experience in supervision. MPs also benefit from having more of their power formally supported. Lilly is more relaxed on this point, arguing that “the powers that committees have to get answers from government, as well as the staff and specialists who work with committees, will also contribute to good oversight.”
Beyond the political impact, a huge new influx of MPs could have the opportunity to reshape Westminster in other ways. The wider culture in parliament is largely determined by MPs and how they behave. A load of newcomers replacing older hands could bring about a generational change. The surge of new MPs in 1997 helped usher in things like family-friendly meetings, while the influx in 2010 helped put the worst excesses of the expenses scandal behind them. With awareness of parliamentary norms, sexual harassment and staff welfare, a large group of new MPs could bring about positive change.
It’s easy to see electoral shifts in terms of nothing more than numbers. Yet a change in electoral composition on the scale currently forecast would also entail a massive change in personnel, with perhaps as many as 300 new MPs moving to Westminster, shaping and being shaped by Parliament.
Politically, the new parliament could be a major boost to the executive, strengthening the power of the government and the whips, while new MPs on all sides would find their feet at Westminster. The early days of a new government can often be the most effective and having an opposition – both internal and external – that has failed to unite and find its way around the nuances of Westminster can really help with that. If the inflow is excessively large, the effects could be more dramatic, but so too will the 2024ers’ chances of ultimately making bigger changes in parliament itself.
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