Research shows that experts consider influenza the top pathogen of concern with pandemic potential

New research presented at the ESCMID Global Congress (formerly ECCMID) in Barcelona, ​​Spain (April 27-30) shows that in a survey study by the VACCELERATE Consortium, which asked infectious disease experts to rank pathogens in order of their pandemic potential, influenza was considered the pathogen with the highest pandemic risk, with 57% ranking influenza as number one, and another 17% ranking influenza second.

The study was conducted by Dr. Jon Salmanton-García, University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Institute for Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), Cologne, Germany, and colleagues from across Europe, and published in the news Travel medicine and infectious diseases.

Other highly ranked pathogens were Disease SARS-CoV-2 ranked third in number one response at 8%, with 16% naming it number two, while the original SARS-CoV virus that circulated in 2002-2003 was ranked number one by 2% of respondents one was voted number one by 2% of respondents. 8%.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF virus) and Ebola virus tied for fifth place, with 1.6% of respondents voting them first. Nipah virus, henipavirus and Rift Valley fever virus were among the pathogens ranked lowest in terms of their perceived pandemic potential.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined a comprehensive research and development (R&D) blueprint for action to prevent epidemics, focusing on major infectious diseases that pose significant threats to public health. These diseases were selected after a rigorous evaluation, taking into account factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity and their evolutionary potential.

In accordance with the WHO R&D Blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network (a pan-European network of sites collaborating on COVID-19, other infectious diseases and general pandemic infectious diseases) has infectious disease experts from all over the world, both within and outside the WHO. members, to rank the diseases listed based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic.

Participants were instructed to rank several pathogens based on their perceived pandemic risk, including diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Experts can rank up to 14 pathogens in order of their perceived risk (the 13 pathogens listed plus Disease . Each pathogen was scored based on its positions.

A total of 187 responses were collected from infectious disease experts from 57 different countries. Of the countries that provided the highest number of responses, Germany provided 27 responses (14%), followed by Spain with 20 responses (11%) and Italy with 14 responses (8%).

Influenza viruses emerged as the pathogen of most concern, along with other highly ranked pathogens including Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and the Ebola virus. Conversely, Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, henipa virus and Rift Valley fever virus were among the pathogens ranked lowest in terms of their pandemic potential.

The authors conclude: “The study found that influenza, disease These pathogens are characterized by their transmissibility via respiratory droplets. and a history of previous outbreaks of epidemics or pandemics.”

Commenting on the top position in influenza, Dr. Salmanton-García: “Every winter we have a flu season. You could say this means there are small pandemics every winter. They are more or less kept under control because the different strains do not But every season the strains involved change, that is why we can get the flu several times in our lives and the vaccines change from year to year.

But he adds that the world is now much better prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic, while previously much attention was paid to a possible flu pandemic. He says: “During the COVID-19 pandemic, we have learned a lot about how to tackle a respiratory virus pandemic. This includes social distancing, hand cleaning, face masks, a renewed focus on vaccination and trust in healthcare facilities. institutions have also learned a lot. Critically, preparedness and surveillance are now better funded.

Provided by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases