Prime Minister Rishi Sunak looks almost guaranteed to lead the Tories into the next election (Alamy)
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Rishi Sunak is expected to avoid an attempt by Tory rebels to oust him as party leader and prime minister, despite an ominous picture emerging from Thursday’s local elections.
Plotters who have spent weeks hoping and informing that a dismal set of results on May 2 would be enough to turn the parliamentary party against Sunak appear to have conceded defeat. It means he is almost guaranteed to lead the Tories into the next general election.
With more results due to be announced this weekend, it looks like the Conservatives will lose more than 500 council seats across the country, which is almost half the number of seats the party is contesting.
In the Blackpool South by-election, a huge swing of 26 points to Labor – the third biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labor in history – has further crystallized the size of the hole in which Sunak’s beleaguered party finds itself as the next general election to come closer.
The scale of losses so far appears to confirm the Labor Party’s large lead in the opinion polls, and suggests Keir Starmer’s party remains on course to win the next general election, which the Prime Minister must call this calendar year.
“The Tories are still in as much trouble as they were a year ago,” election guru Sir John Curtice said on Friday. He added that the ruling Tory party, which according to the most recent Sky News Opinion poll tracker trails Labor by an average of 21 percentthreatened to suffer the worst local election results in about four decades.
Labor also celebrated a victory in Sunak’s ‘backyard’ when David Skaith was elected the first mayor of York and North Yorkshire – a region home to the Prime Minister’s parliamentary constituency and other traditionally Conservative voting seats.
But while the prospects for the Conservative party are bleak, scores of Tories have spoken PoliticsHome agreed yesterday that it had apparently failed to generate enough momentum for a serious move to replace Sunak – despite the hopes of a handful of rebels that a series of painful local election results would convert other Conservative MPs to their cause.
Andrea Jenkyns, one of the prime minister’s biggest critics on the Conservative backbench and who has already submitted a letter of no confidence against him, was quick to admit yesterday that it was ‘unlikely’ that other Tory MPs would write to Sir Graham Brady . , chairman of the 1922 Committee, to urge a change in leadership. “I’m not sure if colleagues will put the letters in, so we’re working with what we have,” she said. Just over fifty Tory MPs would have to send letters to Brady to formally reach a vote of confidence.
In the days leading up to Thursday’s votes, a growing number of Conservative MPs argued that victory for Tory mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Street in the Tees Valley and West Midlands respectively would secure the prime minister’s position.
Last week, PoliticsHome reported quiet confidence among Sunak’s allies that he would be safe, barring a nightmarish Tory scenario that sees the high-profile pair voted out.
Ultimately, that seems to have happened.
It was announced on Friday that Houchen had secured a third term (albeit with a significantly smaller majority compared to the 2021 election), and Conservative Party figures are hopeful that Street will cross the line in his ‘neck and neck’ ‘-fight against Labor candidate Richard Parker. That result is expected to be confirmed on Saturday afternoon.
“If Andy Street holds out, the Prime Minister is free,” said a former minister.
Another ex-Foreign Minister agreed and narrated PoliticsHome: “If we control both the Tees Valley and the West Midlands, the Prime Minister will not be challenged.”
On Thursday, some Tories hoped Sunak would get an unlikely boost in the form of a victory for Conservative candidate Susan Hall in the London mayoral contest. Recent polls show incumbent Labor president Sadiq Khan with a big lead over his Tory challenger, but the London mayor’s allies have repeatedly insisted the race is actually much closer.
The plot to oust Sunak, which has come to nothing, means the Prime Minister will almost certainly lead his party into the next general election. The Prime Minister prefers to go to the polls in the autumn, hoping that voters will feel the positive effects of falling inflation by then, but a summer vote at 10 Downing Street is also being considered. PoliticsHome understands.
Despite fierce speculation in recent days and weeks that Sunak will call an election in the coming weeks, he is currently expected to hold out until the end of the year.
A former Number 10 adviser explained the arguments for holding on PoliticsHome: “Even if your house has lost a lot of its value, the loss is not fixed until you sell it.”
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