FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Prices of zero-emission trucks must fall by as much as half to make them an affordable alternative to diesel models, according to a study published on Wednesday by consultancy McKinsey, a necessary step to help reach the European Union’s climate goals.
Less than 2% of heavy goods vehicles in the EU now run on electric and hydrogen fuel. To meet the bloc’s carbon emissions reduction targets, the share would need to rise to 40% of new sales by 2030, the research published ahead of the IAA Transportation 2024 truck show in Hannover showed.
Currently, production costs for electric trucks are 2.5 to 3 times higher than those for diesel vehicles, the study found, and because logistics companies are unwilling to accept higher costs for zero-emission trucking, that goal is still a long way off.
To overcome that, prices for new electric trucks would need to be no more than 30% higher than diesel models, according to McKinsey, which would require a technological leap forward in batteries.
Successful implementation of the EU’s CO2 strategy also requires a 25% reduction in charging costs, the study shows. By 2035, 900,000 private charging points should be installed in Europe, which would require an investment of $20 billion.
Chinese manufacturers pose a new challenge to European truck makers as they offer competitive products at lower costs. They have already captured a 20% share of the bus market.
“I don’t think it’s impossible that this could actually happen over time with electric trucks,” said Anna Herlt, head of Commercial Vehicle Consulting at McKinsey, and co-author of the study.
