Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India will meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday, a visit that signals the Indian leader’s determination to stick to his own diplomatic path even as the West continues to isolate Moscow over its war against Ukraine.
For Mr. Putin, Mr. Modi’s visit will be a way for Russia to demonstrate that the Kremlin continues to maintain a strong partnership with India, despite the deepening of India’s relationship with the United States. India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude have helped fill Russia’s coffers depleted by international sanctions over the war, and Russia has sought to see India as a partner in reforming the Western-dominated world order.
This is the first visit to Russia by Mr Modi in five years. He landed in Moscow on Monday and will attend a dinner hosted by Mr Putin; official talks are scheduled for Tuesday.
Mr Modi arrived on a day when Russia unleashed a brutal aerial bombardment on Ukraine, including an attack on that country’s largest children’s hospital in Kiev. The attack has drawn condemnation from the West and could put India’s ties with Russia in a sharp spotlight.
The South Asian country became a major buyer of cheap Russian oil at a time when sanctions from Western countries limited what Russia could sell or charge for the product in international markets. India is building huge nuclear power plants with technical help from Russia. Russia is also India’s largest arms supplier, making the relationship crucial for India, which has long had to defend its borders against China.
The meeting in Moscow on Tuesday was due to coincide with the first day of a high-profile summit of NATO leaders in Washington. During the NATO meeting, Western allies are expected to announce additional air defense systems for Ukraine and provide guarantees on the alliance’s long-term commitment to Kiev’s security.
India and Russia are long-standing partners.
Speaking to reporters in New Delhi ahead of Modi’s trip, Indian officials said the summit between Mr Modi and Mr Putin was of “great importance” but stressed that relations with Russia were not aimed at a third party. They also tried to downplay the timing of the meeting.
“I wouldn’t want to read anything more about that in terms of what it means, except that we attach great importance to this annual summit,” Vinay Mohan Kwatra, India’s foreign minister, said at a news conference on Friday.
The annual summit is one aspect of a long-standing strategic partnership between India and Russia. The two leaders last met in 2021 as part of that partnership, when Mr Putin visited Delhi. They met at other events and spoke on the phone several times, Indian officials said.
In the nearly two and a half years since launching his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has sought to double down on his relationships with world leaders outside the West as he strives for what he calls a “multipolar” world order free of singular American dominance.
With its vast economic and military resources, China has become the most critical partner in that effort, but Mr. Putin has also touted ties with other countries, including Vietnam, Brazil and India, to prove that Russia will not succumb to the isolation of the West. hopes to see.
At an investment forum in Moscow last December, Mr Putin praised the Indian leader for pursuing an independent foreign policy and refusing to bow to Western pressure. Mr. Modi is not “afraid, intimidated or coerced into taking actions or decisions that would be contrary to the national interests of India and the Indian people,” Mr. Putin said.
India’s ties with Moscow and Washington are a balancing act.
For Mr. Modi, the meeting is an opportunity to demonstrate India’s determination to chart its own foreign policy course. India, which needs both the United States and Russia to counter China, is constantly trying to balance its relations between Washington and Moscow. While it has strengthened ties with Washington, India has refused to publicly denounce Russia over Ukraine, despite pressure from the United States to do so.
Delhi may want to strengthen its ties with Russia to counter Russia’s growing ties with China, said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an expert on Indian foreign policy. Mr Putin and President Xi Jinping of China have increasingly aligned after declaring a “no borders” partnership in 2022. (The two leaders praised ties with their countries at a meeting in Kazakhstan last week.)
India likely realizes that the United States is “unlikely to punish India for continuing its relationship with Russia,” Mr. Jacob said, with China emerging as Washington’s “main adversary.”
According to Mr Kwatra, the Indian Foreign Minister, Mr Modi could also raise the controversial issue of Russian recruitment of Indian nationals to fight the war against Ukraine. Several dozen Indian citizens were lured to Russia under “false pretenses,” he said, and the government is working to bring them back.
At the same time, India also needs American support against China’s potential aggression in its backyard. China and India have experienced several border clashes in recent decades, including in 2022 and 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops were killed. India needs ammunition to defend its northern and eastern borders.
Military, economic and energy ties are on the agenda.
Russia is India’s largest supplier of military equipment, but over the years the share of Russian weapons has declined – partly because the country has older technology. India has sought to diversify its sources of military supplies and pursue defense cooperation agreements, including with the United States. And the United States and India have also said they will expand cooperation in advanced weapons, supercomputers and other high-tech areas.
But US officials are concerned about supplying equipment and sensitive technology to India if there is a risk that the Russian military will gain access to it. During a recent visit to New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Assistant Secretary of State, said the United States wanted a strong technological relationship with India, and was clear about “which areas are affected by the ongoing military and military relationship between India and Russia.” military area.” technological.”
India’s defense ties with Russia “may be an irritant to the United States, but are not enough to derail Washington’s military cooperation with India,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, who oversees the Eurasia studies program at the Observer Research Foundation.
Mr Unnikrishnan said he did not expect India to announce new military purchases from Russia at the summit. But he thought leaders could announce deals on trade, investment and energy cooperation.
Indian officials have said the country’s trade imbalance with Russia will be a priority for Mr. Modi. India exports just $4 billion worth of goods to Russia and imports $65 billion, largely thanks to purchasing vast quantities of oil. India wants to increase its exports to Russia across the board, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals and services.
Paul Sonne contributed to this report from Berlin.
