(Reuters) – There is a 71% chance of La Nina weather conditions developing from September to November, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
Weather conditions are expected to persist through January to March next year, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with colder than normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is associated with both flooding and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean.
La Nina is expected to bring less rainfall, worsening drought conditions, which could impact agriculture worldwide.
CONTEXT
The cycle between El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase usually lasts two to seven years.
Earlier this week, Japan’s weather agency said there was a 60% chance that a La Nina phenomenon would occur in the Northern Hemisphere from now until winter.
Brazilian soy farmers could produce 14% more in the 2024/2025 season compared to the previous one, a Reuters poll showed, as expectations of more rain rise in the final quarter of the year.
KEY QUOTES
“The agriculture and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the impacts of La Niña, with many of these areas critical to the production of crops such as soybeans and corn,” said David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics.
“The typical La Nina may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the key area to watch for concerns about drought and reductions in crop production is the agricultural fields of Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil during their summer,” says Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather’s leading international forecaster. said.
