Russia is closing in on a key city in eastern Ukraine in one of the fastest advances for its military since the early days of the war. If Russia captures the city of Pokrovsk, it would gain a major strategic advantage in conquering the rest of the Donbas region.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Note: As of September 8
Pokrovsk is at the center of many of the rail and road lines for the entire Donbas. A successful Russian attack would cut key supply lines for troops in the region’s remaining Ukrainian strongholds and position Moscow’s forces to threaten Ukrainian positions south of the city.
The challenges are great for Ukraine. In August, troops sometimes fell back more than a mile a day.
Two dense lines of Ukrainian fortifications remain between the front line and the city, with anti-tank ditches to slow advancing Russian vehicles and dozens of circular trenches to protect infantry and mortar units.
Sources: Planet Labs satellite image; territorial control from the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Over the past week, Ukraine has sent additional troops to defend the lines around Pokrovsk. Russia has switched from a frontal assault on the city to attacks in the south, widening the front and threatening an encirclement of Ukrainian forces between Pokrovsk and the city of Kurakhove. The semicircle that Russia has formed in the area is a tactic known as creating a “cauldron.”
The advance on Pokrovsk was the most successful part of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas this summer. Elsewhere, it attacked along most of the eastern frontline, but made only modest gains after months of fierce fighting. For example, a years-long attack on the hill town of Chasiv Yar has advanced some five kilometers.
Source: The American Enterprise Institute’s Institute for the Study of War with Critical Threats Project
Note: As of September 8
While the front line moved quickly around Pokrovsk last summer, the overall Russian offensive in the Donbas was costly and incremental.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched its surprise invasion of the Kursk region in August. The country has captured more territory in Russia in a month than Russia has in Ukraine in the past year, although its grip on its gains in Russia has yet to be tested in a serious counterattack.
But Russia has continued its advance in the Donbas, and President Vladimir V. Putin has said the Russian military would not divert troops from the area to counter Ukrainian advances in Russia.
However, this rapidly evolving phase of the war may end with autumn rains restricting freedom of movement on both sides as all but paved roads become muddy roads virtually impassable to heavy vehicles.
