Just a few months short of a quarter-century as Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin will receive a copy of the constitution and begin a new six-year term as president on May 7.
Since becoming acting president on the last day of 1999, Mr Putin has monolithed Russia – crushing political opposition, driving independent-minded journalists out of the country and promoting “traditional values” that many in society hold dear. have driven the margin.
His influence is so dominant that other officials could only stand submissively on the sidelines as he launched a war in Ukraine, despite expectations that the invasion would bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, and cost Russia dearly in blood of his soldiers.
With that level of power, what Putin will do with his next term is a difficult question, both at home and abroad.
The war in Ukraine, where Russia is making incremental but consistent gains on the battlefield, is the biggest concern, and it shows no indication of changing course.
“The war in Ukraine is central to his current political project, and I see nothing to suggest that will change. And that affects everything else,” says Brian Taylor, a professor at Syracuse University and author of The Code of Putinismsaid in an interview with The Associated Press. “It affects who is in what positions, it affects what resources are available and it affects the economy, affects the level of internal repression,” he said.
Russian war in Ukraine
In a speech in February, Putin pledged to achieve Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to “defend our sovereignty and security of our citizens.” He claimed that the Russian army has “gained enormous combat experience” and “firmly holds the initiative and conducts offensives in a number of sectors.”
That will entail enormous costs, which could drain the money available for the massive domestic projects and reforms in education, welfare and poverty reduction that Putin made extensive use of for much of the two-hour speech .
Mr. Taylor suggested that such projects were included in the speech both for show and to indicate the real intention of putting them into practice. Mr. Putin “thinks of himself in the great historical terms of Russian countries, bringing Ukraine back to where it belongs, those kinds of ideas. And I think these trump all the more socio-economic type programs,” he said.
If the war were to end in less than total defeat for both sides, with Russia retaining some of the territory already conquered, European countries fear that Putin could be encouraged to further military adventurism in the Baltics or in Poland.
“It is possible that Putin has enormous ambitions and will try to follow a costly success in Ukraine with another attack elsewhere,” Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard, wrote in the magazine Foreign policy. “But it is also entirely possible that his ambitions do not extend beyond what Russia has gained – at enormous cost, and that he has no need or desire to gamble for more.” But, he added, “Russia will not be able to launch new wars of aggression when the war in Ukraine is finally over.”
Such rational concern may not prevail, others say. Maksim Samorukov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said that “Moscow, driven by Putin’s whims and delusions, is likely to commit self-destructive blunders.”
In a comment Foreign AffairsMr. Samorukov suggested that Putin’s age could influence his judgment. ‘At 71 years old, his awareness of his own mortality certainly influences his decision-making. A growing realization of his limited time undoubtedly contributed to his fateful decision to invade Ukraine.”
New power dynamics
Overall, Mr. Putin may enter his new term with a weaker grip on power than he appears to have.
Russia’s “vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. More than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personal and arbitrary manner, lacking even basic controls,” Mr. Samorukov wrote. “The Russian political elite has become more flexible in carrying out Putin’s orders and more submissive to his paranoid worldview,” he wrote. The regime “is at permanent risk of crumbling overnight, as its Soviet predecessor did thirty years ago.”
Mr Putin will surely continue his hostility towards the West, saying in his speech in February that he would like to “do to Russia the same thing they have done in many other parts of the world, including Ukraine: bring discord into our home , to weaken it from within.”
Putin’s opposition to the West is expressed not only in his anger over the support for Ukraine, but also in what he sees as the undermining of Russia’s moral values.
Role of the church, opposition
Russia last year banned the fictional LGBTQ+ movement, labeling it extremist in what officials said was a fight for traditional values like those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church despite Western influence. Courts also banned gender transition.
“I would expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to remain quite visible,” Mr Taylor said. He also noted the outpouring of outrage on social media after a party hosted by TV presenter Anastasia Ivleeva, where guests were invited to appear. “almost naked.” “Other actors in the system understand that this kind of thing resonates with Putin… There were people who were interested in exploiting that kind of thing,” he said.
Although the opposition and independent media have all but disappeared under Putin’s repressive measures, there are still opportunities for further steps to take control of Russia’s information space, including progress on efforts to create a ‘sovereign internet’ to take.
The inauguration takes place two days before Victory Day, Russia’s most important secular holiday, commemorating the capture of Berlin by the Soviet Red Army in World War II and the immense hardships of the war, during which the USSR suffered some lost 20 million people.
The defeat of Nazi Germany is an integral part of modern Russian identity and of Putin’s justification of the war in Ukraine as a similar struggle.
