British Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak speaks to brewery workers (Alamy)
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Conservative MPs remain ‘fed up’ and divided over whether Rishi Sunak should have called an election on Wednesday, as the Prime Minister kicks off formal campaigning across the country.
From the backbenches to government ministers, Tory MPs have for months resigned themselves to the belief that the party is likely to lose the next election. Professor John Curtice, a renowned pollster and respected psephologist, earlier this year estimated Labor’s chances of winning the election at 99 percent.
A YouGov poll published by The times On Thursday, the Conservative Party found itself trailing Labor by 25 points. If this data were repeated at the ballot box, the Conservative Party would receive fewer seats than when John Major oversaw the party’s catastrophic expulsion in 1997.
According to a Tory MP on the right of the party, lately it has been about “how to get another job”.
Sunak has long insisted he would call an election for the second half of the year, meaning the now confirmed July 4 vote almost allows him to keep his promise. But many had nevertheless come to the assumption that voters were not expected to go to the polls until November.
“It still doesn’t get across that many people can understand the logic behind it,” said the same Tory MP PoliticsHome.
A minister said this PoliticsHome they understood that MPs were shocked and surprised because they thought they were on a six-month journey until the election.
But three key factors played a role in the Prime Minister’s idea to go ahead with July. The first was that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt had told Sunak that it was unlikely there would be another Budget event before the next election. Uncertain economic data combined with expensive economic liabilities, such as compensation for the victims and those affected by the tainted blood scandal, are likely to cost the Treasury tens of billions of pounds.
The second is that the Prime Minister was increasingly concerned about further divisions and splits within the party that might have forced him to do it after all. At best, it would put the party struggle that the public detests so much in the spotlight for many months to come. GB News reported on Wednesday that a number of Conservative MPs were engaged in a plot to cancel the next election and replace Sunak before parliament was dissolved on Thursday.
The third crucial factor was that, if the Tories left it too late, Labor would have the opportunity to build up its financial war chest at the party conference in October. With Labor expected to win the next election, increased corporate representation and donations were highly likely.
In local elections earlier in May, the Tory Party lost hundreds of councilors and West Midlands mayor Andy Street to Labor candidate Richard Parker, also reinforcing views that Sunak was likely to wait longer.
One minister said PoliticsHome they were “quite fed up” and claimed that many MPs did not like surprises and sudden changes to plans.
“I like planning and strategy, not panic and bickering,” they said. “There are a number of reasons to argue for going early, but three weeks after the local elections when we’re all ready for the summer is something completely different.”
The times reported that Isaac Levido, the Australian campaign specialist who masterminded the party’s 2019 election victory, wanted to postpone the election until the fall. But Liam Booth Smith, Downing Street’s chief of staff, and James Forsyth, the political secretary, were in favor of calling the election earlier.
Many within Westminster believed Sunak would call an election at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in October. This would allow the government to implement important changes such as the smoking ban law, setting up a football regulator and reforming the rental sector.
The first 24 hours of the Conservative campaign have been privately mocked by Tory MPs. Sunak was drenched in rain as he delivered his Downing Street speech calling the election, while D:Ream’s Things can only get better – the anthem associated with New Labor’s 1997 victory – blared from the street in the background.
“He could have used a British Union Jack umbrella,” said a former minister.
However, the government will be relieved that Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader, will not contest the next election and has confirmed he will not stand as a candidate for Reform UK. The right-wing party has polled well in recent months, with some MPs concerned that if Farage were to run again he could boost the rebel party’s momentum.
Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative MP and government minister who is now campaigning for reform, said PoliticsHome she was convinced the Tory Party was ‘panicking’ and called a snap election as they became increasingly concerned about a Farage comeback.
“If you just look at the numbers, reforms have gone up from 1 percent to 15 percent. The Tories have fallen from 36 per cent to around the early twenties. The gap became smaller,” said Widdecombe.
“The longer he left the election, the wider the gap [between the Tories and Reform] would receive. I think the prospect of Farage being worth a few percent in itself was terrifying [Sunak]. And they are right to be afraid.”
Some MPs believe Sunak was fundamentally right to call the election early as there was no other good time for the party.
A former minister said this was “the right decision” and that there was a cohort of Tory MPs who would lose their seats “even in the most optimistic scenario”.
“They will think they will miss out on five months’ salary and will sooner have to deal with a new reality. The hard truth is that the Prime Minister did not have a good option and certainly not a great option, but I think he chose the best one,” they said.
One Tory MP, elected to a marginal seat in 2019, said they were up for the challenge and ready to fight Labour.
But the vast majority of MPs, who face the prospect of being expelled from parliament in six weeks, remain concerned. Sunak has less than two months to reduce Labour’s lead in the polls and prove his own parliamentary party wrong.
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