Variety The Awards Circuit section is home to all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual participant. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
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Oscars 2025 Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Weekly commentary (updated August 8, 2024): Originality often plays an important role in this category, which often ties into the best photo race.
Sean Baker was finally able to gain recognition with his dark comedy ‘Anora’. At the same time, the prestige of the World War II epic “Blitz” and the musical “Emilia Pérez” are likely to remain at the forefront of voters’ minds.
The “x-factor” in this race is Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night,” a film that features an impressive acting ensemble in the first episode of the long-running NBC sketch show “Saturday Night Live.” Reitman has not been nominated since his work on “Juno” (directed) and “Up in the Air” (double nominated for adapted screenplay and direction). Could this be the year he returns to the awards circuit?
More to come.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category at Variety Awards circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. Below you will find the full rankings. All film listings, titles, distributors and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** indicates that the film is not yet dated or can be accessed 2025.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page Variety Prize circuit: Oscars.
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Image credits: apple
And so are the predicted nominees
Rank Performer and film 1 “Lightning” (Apple Original Movies) — Steve McQueen 2 “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker 3 “Emilia Perez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard 4 “A real pain” (Searchlight Photos) — Jesse Eisenberg 5 “Saturday night” (Sony Pictures) – Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman Oscars: Best Original Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image credits: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics
Next in line
Rank Performer and film 6 “His three daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs 7 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”(Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof 8 “Everything we imagine as light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia 9 “The end” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg 10 “We have grown now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image credits: A24
Other contenders
Rank Performer and film 11 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes 12 “In the summers” (Music Box Films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio 13 “Mary” (No US distribution) – Steven Knight ** 14 “Didi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang 15 “Better man” (Paramount Pictures) – Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson 16 “Memoirs of a snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot 17 “Thelma” (Magnolia Photos) — Josh Margolin 18 “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh 19 “Evil does not exist”(Sideshow) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi 20 “We live in time” (A24) — Nick Payne Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Writers (Best Original Screenplay)
Image credits: Courtesy of the Sundance Institute
** This list is incomplete and not yet final. Not all films have a distribution or release date. They are all subject to change.
- “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia
- “Anora” (Neon) – Sean Baker
- “The Apprentice” (no US distribution) — Gabriel Sherman **
- “Baby Girl” (A24) — Halina Reijn
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Nathan Silver, C. Mason Wells
- “The Bikeriders” (focus features) — Jeff Nichols
- “Bird” (Mubi) — Andrea Arnold
- “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM) — Zoë Kravitz, ET Feigenbaum
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Movies) — Steve McQueen
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Terence Winter, Frank E. Flowers, Zach Baylin, Reinaldo Marcus Green
- “The Brutalist” (no US distribution) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) – Justin Kuritzkes
- “Civil War” (A24) — Alex Garland
- “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Christy Hall
- “The Deb” (no US distribution) – Hannah Reilly, Rebel Wilson **
- “The Deliverance” (Netflix) — David Coggeshall, Elijah Bynum
- “A Different Man” (A24) — Aaron Schimberg
- “Dìdi” (focus functions) — Sean Wang
- “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Movies) — Brad Inglesby **
- “Eden” (no US distribution) – Noah Pink **
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard **
- “The End” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg
- “Evil does not exist” (side issue) – Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Movies) — Erica Tremblay, Miciana Alise
- “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža
- “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) – Mike Leigh
- “Heresy” (A24) — Scott Beck, Bryan Woods
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs
- “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Baird, Kevin Costner, Mark Kasdan
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — Jane Schoenbrun
- “IF” (Paramount Images) — John Krasinski
- “In the Summers” (music box films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio
- “Janet Planet” (A24) — Annie Baker
- “K-Pops” (no US distribution) — Anderson .Paak, Khaila Amazan **
- “Kind of kindness” (searchlight photos) — Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh
- “The Last Showgirl” (no US distribution) — Kate Gersten **
- “Longlegs” (Neon) – Osgood Perkins
- “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24) — Rose Glass, Weronika Tofilska
- “Maria” (no US distribution) – Steven Knight **
- “Meet the Barbarians” (no US distribution) — Julie Delpy, Matthieu Rumani, Nicolas Slomka **
- “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) – Francis Ford Coppola
- “Memoirs of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot
- “Millers in Marriage” (no US distribution) – Edward Burns **
- “Misericordia” (Janus Films) — Alain Guiraudie **
- “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures) — Developer Patel, Paul Angunawela, John Collee
- “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM) – Megan Park
- “On How to Become a Guinea Fowl” (A24) – Rungano Nyoni
- “Parthenope” (A24) — Paolo Sorrentino
- “Quisling – The Final Days” (no US distribution) — Anna Bache-Wiig, Ravn Lanesskog, Siv Rajendram Eliassen **
- “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
- “Relay” (no US distribution) – Justin Piasecki **
- “Riff Raff” (no US distribution) – John Pollono **
- “Rumors” (Bleecker Street) — Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) – David Zellner
- “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) – Mohammad Rasoulof
- “Shirley” (Netflix) – John Ridley
- “The Shrouds” (no US distribution) — David Cronenberg **
- “Spellbound” (Netflix) — Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin, Julia Miranda
- “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder) — Robert Morgan, Robin King
- “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat
- “Thelma” (Magnolia Images) – Josh Margolin
- “Tuesday” (A24) — Daina O. Pusić
- “We’ve Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Minhal Baig
- “We Live in Time” (A24) — Nick Payne
- “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) — Ian MacAllister McDonald
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More information (Oscars: Best Original Screenplay)
Image credits: Rich Polk for variation
Category winner 2024: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Arthur Harari & Justine Triet
Oscars Calendar and Timeline 2024-2025 (All Dates Subject to Change)
- Eligibility period: January 1, 2024 – December 31, 2024
- General Entry, Best Photo, RAISE Entry Deadline: Thursday, November 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday November 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, December 9, 2024 at 9 a.m. PT.
- Provisional voting ends on Friday, December 13, 2024 at 5:00 PM PT.
- Oscar shortlists announced: Tuesday, December 17, 2024
- The eligibility period ends: Tuesday, December 31, 2024
- Voting for the nominations begins Wednesday, January 8, 2025 at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nomination voting ends on Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 5:00 PM PT.
- Oscar nominations announced: Friday, January 17, 2025
- Luncheon for Oscar nominees: Monday, February 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, February 18, 2025, at 5:00 PM PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, February 18, 2025
- 97th Academy Awards: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars prediction categories
Oscar predictions 2024 (Variety Awards circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, are Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen departments are represented within the membership of almost 10,000 people. The branches are actors, employees, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary filmmakers, executives, film editors, make-up and hair stylists, marketing and public relations, members at large, members at large (artist representatives), music, producers , production design, short films and features, sound, visual effects and writers.
