By Maximilian Heide
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans in the current 2024/25 season, trimming corn areas after that crop’s last harvest was hit by a devastating insect pest and rain forecasts looked brighter for soy.
Analysts say the trend could mark the biggest expansion of soy plantations in more than a decade, increasing global supply while prices are already subdued. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of processed soybean meal and oil.
The South American country’s soy planting area has declined in recent years and competes with corn for space. But fears that a locust plague like the one that devastated the last corn crop could hit the fields again is likely to wipe out an estimated 2 million hectares of corn plantings, favoring soy.
“Of the 2 million hectares of corn not planted, a large part will go to soybeans,” said Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario grain exchange, who estimates that 16.8 million hectares were planted with soy last year.
The Rosario stock exchange earlier this month cut its 2024/25 corn planting area by 21%, but has not yet made an official forecast for soy planting area. The rival Buenos Aires stock exchange has reduced the corn area by 17%. Corn planting begins next month.
Aníbal Córdoba, a farmer and member of a producer group in the northern provinces, including Chaco and Santiago del Estero, said producers are building more soy into their plans.
“Our group usually plants 35% to 40% of our land with corn, but this time we are going to average 20-25%. Of what doesn’t go to corn, almost all of it will be replaced by soy,” he said. .
TOUGH COMPARISON FOR CORN; A BOOST FOR SOY
A jump for soy of almost 2 million hectares could be the biggest since an annual increase of 1.2 million hectares in 2012, 1.4 million in 2008 or even 1.9 million hectares in 2003.
Fernando Flores, an agricultural technician and insect expert from farming town Marcos Juárez in Córdoba province, said “shocking” maize losses last season due to the insect pest had deterred many farmers, although the very cold Australian winter would have culled the locusts. figures significantly.
“So maybe the decline in corn plantings isn’t as dramatic as people think when it rains in September,” he said.
However, Germán Heinzenknecht, meteorologist at the Applied Climatology Consulting Firm, said the outlook for early September remained dry, with more rain forecast for October, another boost for soybean whose plantings begin that month.
“Soil moisture levels in much of the agricultural area, in the west and central areas, are currently not suitable for planting,” Heinzenknecht said. “So the overall equation is tough for corn and boost for soy.”
