We humans have settled in all kinds of precarious environments: parched deserts, arid tundra, high mountains. None are precarious in the same way as atolls, the small, low-lying islands in the tropics. As the planet warms and the oceans rise, atoll nations like the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu seem doomed to fade into watery oblivion, like the mythical Atlantis.
But lately, scientists have started telling a surprising new story about these islands. By comparing aerial photographs from the mid-20th century with recent satellite images, they were able to see how the islands have developed over time. What they discovered is surprising: Although sea levels have risen, many islands have not shrunk. In fact, most have remained stable. Some have even grown.
A study that collected data from scientists on 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans found that almost 89 percent had increased in area or had not changed much in recent decades. Only 11 percent had a contract.
To understand why, I spent time with a team of researchers in the Maldives last spring as they collected data on two key pieces of the puzzle: ocean currents and sand.
Currents and waves can of course erode sandy coasts. But they can also bring fresh sand ashore from the surrounding coral reefs, where the remains of corals, algae, crustaceans and other organisms are continually ground into new sediment. (Another source of sediment? Colorful parrotfish, which feast on coral and produce white sand from their digestive tract.)
By examining how these interconnected and complex processes have affected one particular island – Dhigulaabadhoo, an uninhabited jagged piece of land a few kilometers north of the equator – the scientists hope to better predict how other islands will change.
The next century
While the research shows that atolls are not on the verge of being completely washed away, that doesn’t mean they have nothing to worry about. Global warming is putting coral reefs under severe pressure. For example, if the ice caps were to melt faster than expected, sea level rise could accelerate sharply.
Still, scientists say the revelation that atoll islands can naturally adapt to rising seas means the people who live on them will have a chance to figure out how to cope with their changing environment. It means they have options other than the most drastic: leaving their home country altogether.
“I am convinced that in fifty or a hundred years there will be islands in the Maldives,” one of the team’s researchers, Paul Kench, told me when we were on Dhigulaabadhoo. “They won’t look like these islands; they will be different. But there will be land here. For me, that is the challenge: how can you live together with the change that is coming?”
The Maldives needs to cultivate and recruit more scientific experts who can help the country’s adaptation efforts, said Ali Shareef, the government’s special envoy for climate change. Without them, it is difficult to build infrastructure while minimizing damage to reefs, or to design cities that can withstand flooding.
Money is also a problem. “If we have access to the technology and finance, I think we can save the Maldives. It’s not all doomsday,” Shauna Aminath, a former environment minister, told me. “The problem is that we don’t have access to financing and technology.”
If we humans can find a way to continue living and thriving on atolls, it will bode well for our ability to continue to do so across our warming planet. As Jon Barnett, a geographer at the University of Melbourne, put it: “If we can solve climate change adaptation for atolls – ‘solve’ is the wrong word – then we can do it everywhere.”
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