A battle of anti-Western hardliners

Iran will hold early elections on June 28 following the sudden death of former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. But the vote is not free and is unlikely to bring significant change to the country, analysts say.

The election will take place against the backdrop of a battered Iranian economy, widespread popular discontent and a crackdown on dissent. The province also has to deal with it high inflation, heavy Western sanctionsincreasing tensions with the US, stepped-up Iranian nuclear enrichmentand the war between Israel and Hamas.

Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council, which ultimately decides who gets to vote, has approved a list of six candidates to run for president. Most are hardliners who take fervent anti-Western positions, with one candidate representing the reformist camp. Women who registered as candidates were all disqualified by the Council.

“Six of the eighty candidates survived the Guardian Council vetting process. Of these six, five are real hardliners and one is a token reformer,” Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC.

He described Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as the “only significant ‘voter’ in the country.”

He is “looking for continuity, not change,” Ben Taleblu said, adding that half of the approved candidates have been sanctioned by Western governments.

For some Iran observers, the upcoming elections represented an opportunity for the country’s government to “correct course,” or work to rebuild relations with much of Iran’s population and improve its image.

“That is especially in the wake of the protests, the crackdown and the overall increased public discontent that has almost become a hallmark of Raisi’s time in office. The leadership here had… an option to at least create the appearance of a competitive election,” said Nader Itayim, editor of the Middle East wave at Argus Media.

But with Sunday’s announcement of the approved candidates, “those hopes were largely dashed,” he said. “In reality, it is still mainly the hardliners who have to lose.”

Raisi was elected in the summer of 2021 amid the lowest presidential election turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Raisi was a hard-right party seen as a potential successor to the Islamic Republic’s aging supreme leader, Khamenei.

Raisi, 63, was a fierce critic of the West and took strong action against the protest movement that swept the country after the death of a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, while in the custody of Iran’s morality police. September 2022. Hundreds of people were killed in the crackdown.

Low turnout is again expected as many Iranians plan to boycott the elections, angry at a system they see as rigged and ineffective in improving their lives amid an economic crisis.

In a statement, the group Union for Secular Republic and Human Rights in Iran said called for an ‘active boycott’ of the presidential ‘show election’.

Iranian governments have often blamed the country’s hardships on the suppression of US-led sanctions.

It comes after the turnout for Iran’s parliamentary elections in March was also the lowest for a parliamentary election in the Islamic Republic’s history at 41%.

As Khamenei and other leaders urge the public to vote, demonstrating its legitimacy through turnout no longer appears to be as much of a concern for the Islamic Republic, says Middle East director Sanam Vakil and Chatham House’s North Africa Programme. .

“The Islamic Republic recognizes that there is a huge gap in expectations and demands between the system and its people, there is a gap in social liberalization, economic trajectory and political opportunity that the system clearly recognizes it cannot bridge – and as a result, it is She no longer prioritises the traditional outlet of electoral legitimacy, as in the previous elections,” she said.

“The government is trying to present a competitive election but has clearly curated the list of candidates in favor of a range of conservatives, all to ensure that the outcome is relatively predictable.”

Itayim from the Middle East agrees. “If the past election shows us anything, it’s that the leadership isn’t that concerned about turnout,” he said.

“It would like a higher turnout, but if that doesn’t happen, no problem. Ultimately, it seems that they are comfortable enough with the way things are going, and that they do not feel any immediate threat to their hold on power from the growing discontent, protests, etc.”

Iranians who decide to vote will go to the polls on June 28, with the possibility of a second round of voting if the outcome is very close.

Many in Iran saw the 2021 presidential election as designed to ensure that Raisi, Khamenei’s protégé, would win, Itayim said. And the 85-year-old supreme leader now looks more invigorated and confident than ever.

Khamenei “seems to be following this path of consolidating power, within the hardline camps, the conservative camps, whatever happens,” Itayim said.

“From my point of view, considering who will be the candidate this time, it looks like the upcoming elections will take Iran even further down the same path.”