By Darya Korsunskaya
(Reuters) – Russia’s Economy Ministry revised its 2024 forecasts for oil and gas exports, key sources of budget revenue, by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion, thanks to more positive price outlook, a document seen by Reuters showed.
The improved expectations for Russia’s oil and gas trade underscore how the West has struggled to inflict lasting damage on Russia’s economy through unprecedented sanctions, including oil price caps and import curbs, following Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
The document shows that Russian exports will rise this year from 238.3 million tonnes in 2023 to 239.9 million tonnes (4.8 million barrels per day).
The ministry also expects the average price of Russian oil sold for export to rise to $70 per barrel this year, an upward revision of $5 from an April estimate. This is also higher than the $64.5 in 2023 and above the Western-imposed price ceiling of $60 per barrel.
Prices were also adjusted upwards for sales in both Europe and China.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has managed to divert much of its activities away from Europe, increasing trade with China and India.
The revisions ultimately mean higher revenues. Earning almost $240 billion from oil and gas exports this year would represent an increase of $13 billion over 2023. In 2025, the forecast was also increased, from $226.2 billion in the previous forecast to 236 .5 billion dollars.
OIL OUTPUT DOWN
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the world economy would fail without Russian oil and gas.
Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Far East, he said Moscow plans to continue pumping gas to the European Union via Ukraine but that Russia cannot force Kiev to adhere to the transit deal, which expires at the end of this year .
Russia expects gas production to increase every year until 2030, which is the limit of current forecasts, but the ministry has revised down expectations for both oil production and the total volume of energy exports.
Russia is joining efforts, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to curb oil production to support the volatile market.
According to the updated estimates, Russia’s oil production will drop from 529.6 million tons in 2023 to 521.3 million tons this year and by 1.7 million tons from the previous estimate.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the outlook for oil production in 2025 has deteriorated, with production set to fall further to 518.6 million tonnes, down 11.4 million tonnes from the previous forecast.
