By 2030, global growing areas are expected to increase by 3.6 percent, increasing global agricultural production by two percent. This projection comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
An interdisciplinary research team led by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel has investigated which areas worldwide are most likely to be affected by future agricultural expansion. The study’s findings were published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
Higher production, more greenhouse gases
The researchers developed a land use model that identifies the most profitable areas worldwide for future agricultural expansion, taking into account both socio-economic and agro-ecological criteria. They then assessed the economic and environmental impacts of land use changes in these areas. According to the study, new agricultural areas are expected to emerge mainly in the tropics, where despite climate change there is still significant potential to increase agricultural production.
However, because arable land stores much less carbon than native vegetation, the study estimates that land use changes would emit about 17 gigatons of CO2.2 in the long term. This is almost half of current annual global CO2 emissions2 emissions. In areas affected by land use changes, biodiversity would also decline by 26 percent. “The expansion of agricultural land would therefore be a worrying development, especially for global climate protection and efforts to conserve biodiversity,” says co-principal investigator Florian Zabel.
Conservation also makes economic sense
In light of recent political efforts to protect nature, forests and biodiversity worldwide, the researchers also evaluated the impact of different scenarios of global conservation policies and their consequences. It became clear that conservation measures can also have unintended side effects: the law’s prevention of the expansion of agricultural land into forests, wetlands and existing protected areas would shift agricultural expansion mainly to grasslands. This could have a negative impact on the biodiversity of these areas, as grasslands generally have greater diversity than other countries.
On the other hand, sticking with conservation efforts can also make economic sense. “Contrary to expectations, the conservation of forests, wetlands and existing protected areas has little impact on the gross domestic product of the respective regions. Global agricultural production is therefore only slightly reduced. In return, greenhouse gas emissions caused by expansion are significantly reduced,” says lead author Julia Schneider from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich. This finding is especially relevant in the context of global food security: it shows that conflicts between the supply of agricultural goods and environmental protection can be mitigated.
Improve protected area planning
The research makes a valuable contribution to answering the question of which areas are particularly worth protecting. In the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, the international community set the target of protecting 30 percent of the global land area by 2030.
The current study identifies regions that are particularly at risk in the future and highlights the potential impacts of agricultural expansion on the economy and the environment. “This makes it possible to plan protected areas so that they have the broadest possible impact on as many objectives as possible, such as climate and biodiversity protection, while also taking economic interests into account,” says Florian Zabel.
