Karthick Ramakrishnan, founder and executive director of AAPI Data, an organization that studies the political attitudes of Asian American communities in the US, spoke with The Hindu about Kamala Harris’ flight to the White House. In this conversation, he discusses Ms. Harris’ prospects, including with Indian Americans. He also discusses the impact of another Indian American – Usha Vance, wife of Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance – on the race’s periphery.
On the 8% drop in support for Joe Biden in the 2024 Asian American Survey, a survey conducted by AAPI Data, APIAVOTE and other organizations
…What we saw was a decline in support for Joe Biden among Asian Americans – that’s an eight percentage point decline. Among Indian Americans, this is a decline of almost 20%. So it is even more dramatic among Indian Americans. What is important to note, however, is that Donald Trump is not benefiting much from that decline. How is that possible? Well, you have a big increase in the share that says, “I’m going to vote for another candidate,” or “I don’t know,” or “I’m not going to answer that question.”
That’s how I interpret it as a political scientist [ these are ] people who are very dissatisfied with their choice between Biden and Trump. Should we expect Harris to perform the same? I think she will perform better. I think a fair number of those who say I’m going to vote for another candidate could probably win some of those votes, and the large number who say they don’t know or refuse to answer will probably grab them the most votes also.
There are examples from 2019 and 2020 that give us some clues as to how Kamala Harris will perform. She did not perform well when she ran for president because she was not well known outside California. And even though there was a fair amount of curiosity – and even pride – among Indian Americans, the people who dominated headlines in 2019 were people like Bernie Sanders, people like Elizabeth Warren, and people like Pete Buttigieg and then Joe Biden. . So it was very difficult for Harris to break through. One of the reasons she dropped out in 2019 was that Bernie Sanders did better than her in California. And she’s a senator from California. So that was a big part of that calculation.
But once she was chosen for the vice presidential nomination, you saw a big spike in interest among Asian Americans, but especially Indian Americans. In terms of what you saw on social media, what you saw in commentary, and at least impressionistically what we gathered from campaign finance data.
The impact of Kamala Harris’s candidacy on Indian Americans who have moved towards Trump.
I think it is important to note that Ms. Harris’s entry into the fray introduces a new dynamic that will create its own set of disruptions in terms of the voting choice and political allegiance of Indian Americans. What we saw in October 2023 (AAPI Data -AP-NORC Survey) was that Harris’ favorability was on par with Biden’s. It is logical; she is seen as part of the Biden-Harris administration. And so she didn’t perform much better among Indian Americans or among Asian Americans in general than Biden. That said, she performed a lot better than Donald Trump and a lot better than Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
People mentioned how much ethnic pride could impact where Indian Americans go this year. When it comes to people who identify as Democrat or Republican, it is very difficult to vote across party lines, even if it is your fellow countryman who is on the other side. And so that’s what that evidence shows: even though there may have been some curiosity, Haley did well among the Indian Republicans, but not among the Indian Independents, or among the Indian Democrats. And the same was true for Ramaswamy. He did even worse among Indian Americans in general, and certainly among Indian American Democrats and Independents. So without all that in play, it will be interesting to see how much Harris will try to chart a new direction, and how much he will stand on the good name of the Biden-Harris administration. It’s actually something that vice presidents, if they run for president, have to navigate through.
She can take the progressive side and choose the public that cares about that. But she can take the more centrist sides from her time as attorney general [ of California] from her time as a prosecutor [of San Franciso] .
One issue that will now come to the fore is abortion and reproductive rights. And in that regard, Indian Americans and Asian Americans are among the strongest supporters of abortion rights. She brings credibility and prominence to this issue in a way that Joe Biden could never have brought to the table.
The economy is the main reason why they do this [Indian Americans] soured on Biden, Harris inherits much of that. But I think she has an opportunity to say that I would do things differently. But she also has the ability to increase the visibility of issues like abortion, climate change and gun control. These are all issues where Indian Americans are much closer to her than they are to Trump and [ his running mate J D] Vance.
Immigration is another potential reset opportunity. Everyone’s going to try to frame her role in terms of the border issue and, you know, try to address the root causes of migration from Central America. I think she has the ability to reframe the issue as one that also has to do with family visas, long visa wait times, and the Republican Party’s plans, especially when you look at Project 2025 to dramatically reduce migration. So these are all issues that I think she could bring to the table that messed up the calculations of the Trump campaign and also of the Indian-American voters.
How will Republicans compete for Indian American and Asian American votes, given their tough stances on immigration?
This is a major challenge the Republican Party has faced over the past two decades, and it has become even worse under Trump. So even if Indian Americans were to give credit to the Republican Party on issues like the economy and perhaps even on some foreign policy issues, [there are] two major issues that keep them from switching to the Republican side. One of these is the rise of Christian conservatism and, now, Christian nationalism. Indian Americans are predominantly Hindu and very religiously diverse, even looking beyond Hindus. This therefore prevents many Indian Americans from feeling welcome or at home within the party.
The other big problem is immigration. Indian Americans make up the largest group of undocumented or illegal Asian immigrants in the country. As the community becomes more and more aware of the complicated nature of immigration, they may adopt a less hard and fast attitude…
More and more people may know friends of friends who have overstayed their visas. In some of them [cases] illegal immigrants may be not only border crossers, but also visa supervisors, including elderly people who care for their grandchildren, for example.
…[ Donald Trump] faces a lot of mixed opinions within the party and many strong anti-immigrant opinions. And it becomes more challenging for him to independently do anything that could increase legal immigration. There is a lot of opposition, even to legal immigration, among other things [ former White House Senior Advisor] Stephen Miller and [ Breitbart founder and former Chief White House strategist] Steven Bannon, and many other conservatives in the Republican Party.
How loyal are American voters to political parties?
The important thing to note in the Indian-American context is that you have an existing base of voters who have voted for two or three elections or even more. And what political science research says is that if you’ve voted for someone from the same party, for two or three elections, you’re very unlikely to change your mind. Even if you don’t call yourself a member of that party, these habits are ingrained in you and your attitude tends to align with that party.
Now there are people who have been independent all the time and those people are easier to convince. But the big missing piece of this is the number of new voters coming in and those who are newly naturalized, as well as people who were born in this country and have been of voting age since 2020. That’s where you’ll likely see persuasion. make the difference.
On the impact Usha Vance, the Indian-origin wife of the Republican vice presidential candidate, will have on the Indian American vote.
Remarkably, Indian Americans, who are among several major immigrant groups most recently to arrive in the United States, are doing as well politically as they are. The Japanese American population, the Chinese American population, and even the Latino population, which has been here for centuries, if not decades, are not represented on the two big party tickets the way Indian Americans do. And why is that?
Immigrants who come from robust democracies are more likely to be involved in politics than immigrants who come from communist countries or other repressive regimes. High English proficiency is also a factor. So while it may be surprising to many people, it is not uncommon for Indian Americans to move into leadership positions as quickly as they do. Now Usha’s story is a different story. That’s another part of the Indian-American story: people are doing very well, when it comes to elite education in the United States, and also when it comes to elite professionals in the United States.
Now her [ Usha Vance] has itself been largely non-political. And that will be, I think, a big question in terms of to what extent she will actually convert Indian Americans to the Republican side. Until less than a decade ago, she was a registered Democrat.
I think what she did, and will continue to do, is humanize and soften the image of JD Vance and perhaps try to soften the policies of the Republican Party when it comes to issues like immigration. [and] abortion. But there isn’t much that the spouses of vice presidential candidates do. It’s a big question how much vice presidential candidates do themselves; usually the focus is on the top of the ticket. When you’re talking about the wife of a vice presidential candidate, the effects are marginal at best.
